The following text is a written contribution by Internationalist Standpoint to the 4rd Internationalist Meeting, which took place in Paris, May 15-17. The text was drafted during March 2026
Trumpism represents a turning point in international developments. It is a reflection of the multiple crises of capitalism in general and of the US in particular, one of the key aspects of which is the direct challenge to its hegemony by China.
Trump’s “methods” represent a departure from everything that Western imperialist diplomacy learned about the treatment of complex international problems through the experience of great social convulsions, revolutions and wars, particularly the two world wars. The dismantling of the United Nations and a whole series of international agreements, combined with his ambitions to become the uncontrolled ruler of the planet, is causing alarm in the serious sections of the ruling class internationally, in the rich allies of the US and the US itself.
If it was not for the possession of nuclear arms by the main antagonists, threatening with mutual destruction irrespective of who strikes first, we would certainly be seeing the entry into World War III.
Ruling class worried
Trump’s open clash with the European powers is creating a new situation for Western imperialism which, on a medium- and long-term basis, undermines the same hegemony of the US that Trump is trying to defend.
The serious sections of international capital understand that Trump, if left unchecked, can drive the planet into another major economic recession with his protectionist policies and trade wars. He can provoke catastrophic wars, as is the case with Iran today, causing both huge regional instability and raising the prospect of another “oil crisis”, bringing to memory the 1973–74 one.
Iran
The war on Iran is indicative, among other things, of political myopia. It is as if the invasion of Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003), and the interventions in Syria and Libya after the “Arab Spring” of 2011, never happened. In all the above cases, US and Western imperialism failed to stabilize their control on the ground and had to flee, after having created internal war conditions and chaos with hundreds of thousands of dead in each case. The last act in the drama of those interventions was the emergence of ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
Why would anybody expect different results today?
The forces on the ground that put an end to ISIS’s advance, before ISIS’s final defeat, were the Kurds (in Kobane, Rojava – north Syria, 2015). But in January 2026 they were, once again, stabbed in the back by the US, which gave its full support to the military operation by al-Sharaa’s new Syrian regime that put an end to their autonomy.
Now Trump and Israel are trying to use the Kurds in Iran and Iraq against Iran.
A change of regime in Iran cannot be seen as realistic, and it cannot be achieved by bombing the country. Any serious, i.e. large-scale, military intervention by US troops on the ground should be ruled out. Occupation of Iran as a whole is impossible. What would be possible is the sending of small forces to occupy this or that foothold (the Hormuz Strait or Kharg Island). But without regime change this would not last.
US and Israel’s “appeals” to the Iranian people to take up arms against the regime essentially aim at the national minorities (around 40% of the population), and especially the Kurds. The majority of Kurdish parties are not willing to play this role, at least for the time being. But if they do, misled once again by false US promises, the outcome would be a massive slaughter in an internal war fought on nationalist and not class lines. It could be fiercer and more devastating than anything we have seen before in the Middle East. In any case, even if this were to happen, it still would not lead to regime overthrow — actually a more vicious, theocratic and authoritarian regime could take its place.
Everything shows that the US is trapped in an impossible situation.
The economy
There are good reasons to predict that Trump’s economic policies will also backfire. The US economy has not taken off, no new jobs have been created, manufacturing has not returned to the US, as Trump promised — leaving aside the possibility of a new recession.
Nor have Trump’s policies brought any advantages to the US in its competition with China. China saw in 2025 the highest ever surplus in its trade with the rest of the world (1.2 trillion USD), despite Trump’s (and Biden’s) trade war against it. The same is true of the first two months of 2026, which saw both the highest trade surplus on record and a very high and unexpected rise in industrial production.
China is clearly facing problems due to its internal contradictions, but also because of US sanctions against it. Nevertheless, it is still growing two to three times faster than the US and the EU.
It is quite possible that Trump could face a major recession during his term in the near future, not just because of the general contradictions of US and global capitalism, but also due to the war on Iran.
This would seriously undermine his support internally, but it would not put an end to Trumpism as a phenomenon.
Not fascism
There is a discussion about how to describe Trump and his regime, with many on the left speaking of fascism. This is wrong. Fascism, among other things, means the complete destruction not only of all rights (democratic, trade union, social, etc.) but also of the organisations of the working class. We are very far from such a state of affairs. This can only come about as a result of great defeats of the US working class, in struggles that go far beyond anything we have seen to this day.
One may speak of fascist elements in Trump’s administration, but this is different from a fascist regime. It is also wrong to speak of the fascistization of US society, because at the same time as certain sections of society are moving to the right, others are moving to the left and becoming radicalized — as shown by the victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York, without, of course, allowing for any illusions in Mamdani, who is a reformist linked to the Democratic Party.
Europe
The European powers have been “stunned, sidelined and disunited”, to use The Guardian’s (11.03.2026) words. Trump’s repeated offensive remarks, the issue of Greenland and the tariff war against the European powers are pushing the EU in the direction of trying to present itself as an independent pole in the face of competition from both China and the US. Against this backdrop, discussion about greater convergence on the financial, fiscal, defence and foreign policy levels has been reinvigorated.
But no real steps have been made in this direction.
The rise of Trump has created further divisions inside the EU. There are open disagreements within the EU regarding Trump’s attack on Iran; between the heads of the two main EU institutions, the European Commission (led by Ursula von der Leyen – Germany) and the European Council (led by Antonio Costa – Portugal); new clashes and renewed divergence between France and Germany, the key pillars of the EU; etc.
The root of the EU’s inability to overcome its divisions and paralysis and move in the direction of greater and deeper convergence lies in the conflicting interests of the different ruling classes, despite the extensive integration of their markets. Fundamentally, European capitalism cannot overcome the nation state despite the limitations it imposes in the present epoch. This does not mean that certain steps towards further convergence cannot be undertaken in some fields.
A new epoch of militarism
One of the key features of the current period is the rapid acceleration of militarism — a new global arms race.
According to SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), world military spending rose by 9.4% in real terms to approximately $2.7 trillion in 2024, the highest level ever recorded. However, in terms of GDP percentages, these amounts are still lower than those spent during the Cold War period (1950s to 1991), especially in the 1950s and 1960s.
2024 marked the tenth consecutive year of rising military expenditure — an increase of roughly 37% since 2015. NATO governments have agreed to raise defence spending from the current 2% of GDP up to 5%. Trump announced a 50% increase in military spending, which stood at 3.4% of GDP in 2024, until 2027. Russia’s military expenditure has more than doubled since 2021. China is now in the third year of a 7% annual rise in defence spending.
On an international level, the ruling classes are making a major turn towards militarist propaganda, introducing militarism at all levels, especially in secondary schools. In Europe they use the pretext that Russia is preparing to invade Europe. This is a myth aimed at convincing people to make sacrifices in the name of “Rearming Europe”.
Fight
One of the most important tasks of the Left internationally is to fight against the US-Israel attack on Iran. Linked to that, of course, are the issues of Venezuela, the threats against Cuba, and the expansion of Israel at the expense of Palestinian lands, Lebanon, Syria, etc.
This means, in practice, attempting to build powerful anti-war movements in all countries, particularly in NATO countries — linked also to anti-militarism and anti-nationalism.
Iran and the Left
This fight must be accompanied by criticism of the Iranian regime. Sections of the Left refuse to criticize the Mullahs in the name of anti-imperialism. This is wrong. Remaining silent about the arch-reactionary character of the Mullahs does not assist the struggle against Western imperialism; on the contrary, it undermines it.
In such a case, great masses of people will see the Left as covering up the crimes of the regime against workers, women, youth and national minorities. The Left, especially the revolutionary Left, has a duty to describe reality as it is.
In addition, if the Left refuses to criticize the regime, then it fails to offer any perspective to the struggling Iranian masses and leaves them with no apparent option other than turning towards Western imperialism.
The generalized crisis of the old order; Trump’s autocratic ambitions; the attacks by ICE against immigrants and the cold-blooded murder of anti-ICE activists like Renee Good and Alex Pretti; the threats against Greenland and the war on Iran; combined with the continued attacks on living standards — all these are having an impact on consciousness worldwide.
This is especially the case in the US, where we see a rise in class struggle and in support for left groups like the DSA. These conditions are providing new opportunities for the Left, especially the Marxist Left, to take initiatives in an anti-war, anti-imperialist and anti-capitalist direction, raising the banner of social revolution and socialism, and working in collaboration with other forces of the Left on the basis of a united front approach.
