The following article on the impact of Trump’s election in the US, on world relations, the economy the class struggle and the political repercussions, was published on the ISp website in four parts, between January 29th and February 21st , before the recent attack on Iran.
I. From Venezuela and Greenland to the “Board of Peace”
“Geopolitically, Trump is causing tectonic shifts of what has been considered as stable in recent decades. Most important of all is the huge rift that is being created between the US and the European powers. The European powers have been following “obediently”, more or less, the US in the policies that the latter decided since the end of the World War II – serving of course at the same time their own imperialist interests. This alliance was one of the key factors that enabled the West in general and the United States in particular to dominate the planet, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Trump seems to be bringing this alliance to an abrupt (and shocking to its main protagonists) end.”
3rd ISp Conference, March 2025
Although Trump’s term had barely begun in March of last year, the assessments we made as an international organization (ISp) and as “Xekinima” proved to be quite accurate. Trump has “dropped a bomb” on everything that was considered stable in Western capitalism, especially so as regards the core element of this “stability”, which is the relations of the United States with its European allies.
Trump believes that in this way he is Making America Great Again (MAGA). In fact, by claiming that he wants to see America great again, Trump recognizes that America is not great, it is in retreat. In fact, he himself is a derivative of America in retreat, no matter how much he seeks to impose his own terms by projecting the “enormous power” that he thinks the United States still continues to have. This is a contradiction that his mind probably cannot grasp.
Of course, the European powers that dominated the planet until World War II, are in permanent retreat, more correctly in historical decline (see, for example, the text of the 3rd ISp Conference,The decline of Europe and the Crisis of the Left). Trump understands this – but, like everything, to an exaggerated degree. And while he shows, in his own way, a kind of respect towards powers like Russia and China, he mocks the Europeans, ridicules them, blackmails them, sends them “to cut their throats”, states that in Afghanistan the European armies did nothing of valueremaining in the rear and avoiding battle, burdens them with the main responsibility for the war expenses of Ukraine, forces them to increase their budget expenditures to a huge 5% of GDP, and so on (not to mention the issue of tariffs and the economy which is another big, separate chapter, to be taken up later).
The kidnapping of Maduro may have pleased the European leaders in many ways, but at the same time it worried them: how far will this cowboy who seems to continue living in the era of the Far West go? Trump seems to be bringing back the Monroe Doctrine (of 1823) which claimed Latin America as the backyard of the USA, where they will do whatever they want. And everything shows that he seems to be enjoying the change of name to the Donroe doctrine (from his first name, Donald, and Monroe).
The issue of Greenland left the European leaders no choice
The key European leaders’ attitude towards Trump was, for the first year of Trump’s term, cautious and patient – to the point of servility. But the issue of Greenland left them no choice but to do something.
The US (together with the UK) dragged Europe into the Ukraine war – initially powers like France and Germany were hesitant and sought a compromise with Russia. Then they were dragged into the trade war with China under the US’s pressure. In both cases, European capitalists were the losers: their attitude towards Russia deprived them of the cheap natural gas that covered their energy needs, while the trade war with China limited their access to the Chinese market, which has been the fastest growing in the world.
The EU offered Ukraine more (in military equipment and financial aid) than the US, while the US has been selling very expensive liquefied natural gas to Europe, making profits from this in addition to the profits made from selling weapons and ammunition to the European governments for Ukraine’s needs. All this was swallowed by the European capitalists, because without the US they understand that they cannot stand up to international competition and also against Russia on the issue of Ukraine.
And after they paid all this cost… after they launched a “frenzied” campaign to terrorize the populations of Europe about the notorious “Russian danger” that threatens Europe, and the need for huge armament programs… because if Russia wins in Ukraine, it will not stop there… and before long Europe will… speak Russian, according to the ridiculous NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte… after all these, Trump comes and claims Greenland, the biggest island on the planet, of great strategic importance and the richest part of Europe in minerals and critical metals.
If for Donbass (which is claimed from Ukraine and gradually occupied by Russia) the Europeans claim that they must do everything possible so as to stop Russia, what should they do for Greenland? It is immeasurably more important, economically and strategically, more than 60 times larger than Donbass and 3.5 times larger than Ukraine itself (which is the largest country on the European continent).
And so, the question naturally arises: who is ultimately the greatest danger to the European powers? Putin or Trump? The bully at the helm of the planet, directly threatened to use force to acquire Greenland – so that there are no misunderstandings, he (initially) threatened to send the US army against European territory and occupy it!
Under this pressure, the European rulers were forced to pull themselves together and begin to react. And again, their public statements were measured so as not to alienate the… ally (with such friends, who needs enemies?). In the background, however, they began to discuss drastic measures like the imposition of tariffs on US imports, approximating in total nearly 100 billion euros, and even the closure of American bases in Europe!
After the reactions of European and NATO “partners”, Trump, it seems, backed down a little. Not from claiming Greenland but from using military force to occupy it. Although he continues in his usual style to declare that eventually he will do his thing, his specific retreat shows that his pompous statements and his real power have limits.
The Board of Peace
His bravado policy on the Greenland issue is accompanied at the same time by another “initiative” of his: he is dissolving any concept of international coordination with other capitalists, withdrawing from a total of 66 international bodies.He withdraws from every United Nations organization that deals with issues such as international aid, reconstruction of damaged areas, Health, Education, science, human rights, culture, the environment and the climate crisis, women’s rights, etc., etc.
And he creates a “Board of Peace ” with the pretext of the “reconstruction” of Gaza (which in practice means converting the coastal 53% of Gaza into a riviera, as he had stated from the beginning of his term), in which he invites dozens of countries (60 in total, including Russia and China) from all continents to participate.
In this “Board of Peace” Trump will be the absolute ruler – he will decide and order, no decision can be made without his agreement, he and only he will decide the composition of his Board, and any changes to it.
The Board was formed with the pretext, initially, of rebuilding Gaza but in reality it has other and permanent characteristics. In the Board’s charter, which Trump presented in Davos, there is no mention of Gaza. What is mentioned in the charter are the purposes of “promoting stability, restoring legitimate governance and peace in areas affected by or threatened by conflict”.
In other words, Trump wants to effectively abolish the UN Security Council (essentially the UN itself) and replace it with his own body that will determine where there will be war and where peace and that will bring down or raise governments according to the decisions and interests of Trump and his MAGA. He wants to become the absolute ruler of the planet, an emperor with so many powers that has no historical precedent.
Is it conceivable that he might be able to achieve this?
II. America against everyone else? Something that can’t go very far
A comedy
The person who runs the US and arms fascistic elements under police uniforms to execute civilians in the streets, like Renee Goode and Alex Pretti recently in Minnesota; who renames the US “Defense Ministry” into “War Ministry”(here we must give him credit for at least telling the truth); who supports the genocide of the Palestinian people and wants to turn their land into a Riviera for the rich; who bombs Iran (last summer) basically wanting to show his fist; who invades militarily and kidnaps the president of another country, Venezuela; who threatens a multitude of other countries with similar military interventions, such as Mexico, Colombia, Cuba etc; beyond the issue of Greenland with which we have already dealt extensively, this same person had the audacity to claim… the Nobel Peace Prize!
The Nobel Prize Committee in Norway refused to give it to him. It offered it to Maria Machado, leader of the right-wing opposition in Venezuela. Maria Machado had previously repeatedly called on the US to intervene in her country to overthrow the Maduro government. In other words, this lady wanted war and was furiously propagandizing for it – and that is why she won the Nobel Prize! No comments are necessary.
Trump was angry at losing the prize, and according to several Western analysts, this seems to have played a role in Trump’s refusal to offer the presidency of Venezuela to Machado after Maduro’s abduction, preferring to keep Vice President Delcy Rodriguez in that position.
But Maria thought the prize was of less value than taking over the presidency of Venezuela, so she decided to offer it to him. The Nobel committee protested, explaining that the Nobel Prize is not transferable – one would think, if a Metro ticket is not transferable how could the Nobel Peace Prize be transferred?
But Maria and Donald do not understand what the committee wants, so Maria goes to New York to offer it to him. And he? He accepts it! And he takes a photo with Maria Machado, for whom he has, now, after she gave him the award, the best words!
If all this were not so dangerous and so tragic, it would be perfect material for a hilarious comedy. In any case, it is absolutely ridiculous. But that is always the case. When the system goes into crisis, its representatives combine regression, the most reactionary ideas, attacks on the achievements of society, attacks on democratic and all other rights, along with absurdity.
It is not a personal issue
The biggest mistake one can make is to attribute this whole situation simply to Trump’s character.
Trump is the reflection of the general situation in which the system he serves is in – the American capitalist system. The strategists of capital, in the media and elsewhere, will try to convince us that the whole problem is Trump’s personality. But what are the conditions that allow a bully and at the same time ridiculous person to be at the helm of the planet? This is something they do not want to touch upon. Even the most serious system analysts will try to hide the crisis that lies in the background – economic, social, and political. But Trump is not the generative cause, he is the symptom.
In the period ahead, and after only a year in power, Trump can be expected to face serious resistance from three directions: on the one hand, the serious sections of the ruling class not only in Europe but also in the US who understand that the man is fickle and ultimately dangerous to their interests, on the other hand, the rising new forces in global capitalist competition led by China, and finally the American working class and wider layers in society that are already in the streets against his policies.
Xi Jinping receives visits…
While European leaders faithfully followed the US in its anti-China rhetoric and measures until recently, the last few weeks have shown them doing some rethinking. This does not mean that the Left is in any way entitled to support them – let’s be clear about that.
In December, French President Emmanuel Macron went to China to talk to the country’s president, Xi Jinping. Soon after, in early January, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung went (along with 400 businessmen, a not insignificant detail). Then came Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, and then Micheál Martin, Prime Minister of Ireland. Immediately after that, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo; and soon after him, Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of the UK. All of them in January. In the immediate future, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is also preparing his visit.
It’s rather simple. The USA administration treats the Europeans (European imperialists – let’s never forget their real character just because some, right and “left”, talk about “European civilization, democracy, cultural superiority”, etc.) like garbage. And it leads the capitalist world into chaotic situations, to the extent that they cannot know what the next day will bring. In the conditions created by Trump, China appears as a relatively more serious constant for global capitalism.
Trump’s dismantling of international organizations, his throwing of the UN into the trash and its replacement by Trump’s “Board of Peace” (peace!), the replacement of diplomacy and the international rules called “International Law” (which is the agreed-upon law of capitalists and imperialists and not at all of workers and poor peoples) with crude taunting and bullying are dangerous paths for international capital.
The capitalists did not discover diplomacy, international rules and organizations all of a sudden, because they had some kind of epiphany. For centuries, European colonialists operated on the basis of brute force, robbery, genocide and wars. They were led to diplomacy and international organizations by the repeated crises of their system, economic and social, by the wars they found themselves in, especially the two world wars, and finally by the revolutions that these conditions gave birth to. They were led to them by the need to protect their system. They needed international coordination to face the destructive crises into which they were thrown by the anarchy of the markets and the fierce competition that has characterized capitalism since its birth. And which today is even more acute than a few decades ago. Trump throws all of this in the trash and declares “Veni, vidi, vici“, as Julius Caesar used to say.
What Trump Didn’t Understand
Trump is attempting to turn the world back 200 years with his “Donroe Doctrine”, but is blind to the implications of his strategy:
- The era of Colonialism is over. It reached its peak in the 19th century, when the European powers completed the division of the world among themselves, but in the 20th it ended. It did not end because the “democrats” of “civilized” Western Europe understood that it was not right to slaughter millions of people, but because the slaves revolted – we had the colonial revolution that swept the planet in the decades after World War II. And if we had not had Stalinism in the Soviet Union, with the momentum of the colonial revolution in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, the planet would be socialist today. The end of colonialism does not mean that colonial economic and other relations have stopped – what we now call “neo-colonialism” and which is characterized by negative/exploitative terms in the relations between industrialized and former colonial countries. But that is a different issue.
- Pax Americana (from “Pax Romana”, i.e. the imposition of “peace”, so called, through force, in the Roman Empire) was tested, and indeed very recently, in the 1990s. Then, after the capitalist restoration in the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc in 1989-91, waves of triumphalism erupted in the West by capitalists who believed that history had been judgedonce and for all, that American capitalism was the undisputed victor and nothing could challenge its power and authority. Pax Americana went hand in hand with Francis Fukuyama’s theories of the time about the “end of history” – that is, that history had judged, capitalism was the final and undisputed social/economic system. The 2000s dashed the hopes of the capitalists/imperialists and Francis Fukuyama publicly acknowledged that he was wrong… and even declared himself a socialist (“social democrat”, of course, let’s not ask for too much).
- What else does Trump forget? Yes, that Western capitalism is in decline – it is losing ground in international markets, in global GDP, in global manufacturing and trade. It remains the most powerful capitalist pole on the planet but it is constantly losing ground. And it is being directly challenged, in terms of its global primacy, by China. All the experts’ predictions converge on the fact that within the next one or two decades, the first economic power on the planet will be China and the third India. America, whether with Trump or with a “Democrat” in the presidency, cannot stop this process.
America against everyone – something that cannot go far
Western capitalism is in a phase of historical retreat (see here and here) unable to face the new forces that are emerging and challenging it. This does not mean that these forces are progressive, and that the Left should support them – this too is something that needs to be clarified.
Trump does not understand that if he wants to face the real danger for him, China and its allies in the BRICS, he needs Europe (as well as Canada, Australia, Japan, etc., the traditional allies of the US). By seriously undermining relations with them, he also weakens America’s position in international capitalist competition. He is creating a kind of “America against everyone” situation. With this approach, he cannot win in this confrontation.
He will face the reaction of capitalists on the rest of the planet, but also of the capitalists within the US itself, who are following with intense anxiety to see how far this chaos will go. The “chaos” does not only concern the geopolitical consequences of Trump’s policies; it also concerns the internal ones.
What will be the consequences for the economy and American businesses? And what will be the reaction of American society. What will be the course of the class struggle in the US, considering, for example, the latest strike mobilizations in Minnesota, on January 23, the 7 million demonstrators in 2,700 protest rallies on “No Kings day” last October and many others?
Ultimately, Trump’s policies will be judged on two levels: the course of the US economy and the balance of power in relation to China.
III. The Economy: China and America
Trump has not succeeded in checking China
Trump’s policy since his first term, in 2017 (which Biden continued and escalated in his own term, 2021-2024), has as its main target Chinese businesses and the Chinese economy. Let’s see what he has achieved.
- Reducing China’s large trade surplus (the difference in the value of exports and imports) with the rest of the planet is a central goal of American policy. At the end of 2024, China’s trade surplus had approached 1 trillion dollars (to be exact $992 billion), a historical record, and this increased the concern of the West. At the end of 2025, after Trump’s new aggressive actions, the trade surplus not only did not decrease, but increased to $1.2 trillion (to be precise, $1.19 trillion) – a new historical record. For comparison, at the end of 2017, China’s trade surplus was $422.5 billion (2.87 trillion yuan).
- Economic growth of Chinese GDP was around 5% for 2025 and is estimated (by Western international bodies) at between 4.2% and 4.5% for 2026. It is almost 3 times higher than the growth of the USA and 4 times higher than that of the EU.
- For 2026, it is predicted (based on estimates by the International Monetary Fund – IMF) that global GDP will increase by 3.1%. China will contribute 26.6% to this increase, India 17% (the two together 43.6%), the US 9.9% and Europe (EU with Britain) 9.5%. In other words, the West’s tendency to lose ground in relation to both China and India, doesn’t seem to be arrested.
- On the question of whether the US (and European) trade war against China has managed to cut it off from technological development, let’s listen to the words of those who (do indeed) know better. The CEO of Google Deep Mind (which has developed Gemini, which according to many is the best Artificial Intelligence tool today), and Nobel laureate Demis Hassabis, recently stated that Chinese artificial intelligence models are closer to the capabilities of the US and the West “than we might have thought a year or two ago. Maybe right now they are only a few months away.” Along the same lines, Nvidia CEO (the company with the largest market capitalization on the planet, valued at this moment at $4.6 trillion) Jensen Huang made statements such as: “as I have been saying for a long time, China is nanoseconds behind the US in Artificial Intelligence”,“we are very, very close… China is right behind us…” and “China will beat the US in the AI race”.
- If we look at the overall picture of the US-China confrontation, it is probably best summarized by the headlines in two of the most important capitalist media outlets in the US. “China at the epicenter, amid American chaos”, wrote Bloomberg on January 15, while the New York Times on January 31, wrote: “US allies reach out to China, but on Beijing’s terms”.
In conclusion, looking at the US policy towards China… you can’t really call it a success.
All of the above, of course, do not negate the serious contradictions and problems inherent in the Chinese economy, which despite the very strong intervention of the state, operates on the basis of the capitalist market.
Nor does it negate the fact that Trump’s trade war, although much milder than the war cries with which he started off in early 2025, has a negative effect on all capitalist countries and will certainly affect China as well, contributing to the reduction of its growth rates. But these are different issues, another, important, discussion, which we cannot deal with here.
… nor did America “take off”
The economy is the key. If we consider, as a working hypothesis, that Trump manages to achieve his goals, this will be mainly due to the economy. If it (the economy) goes well, and provides some crumbs for working-class and poor households in the US while the billionaires are becoming trillionaires, then he will have consolidated his position for a while. And the European and NATO “allies” of the US, who behind the scenes are currently cursing Trump and his administration will swallow the pill and the insults and adapt to the new reality.
Trump, of course, presents whatever happens as a success and as his own victory. As he constantly repeats, to ridicule, “Trump is always right.” However, the facts and figures of the US economy tell a different story.
- At the base of the American economy is a time bomb namely the budget deficit (deficit in the annual federal budget) and national debt (consisting of the total accumulation of all deficits from the past). Trump’s policies are far from providing any solution to these problems.
- Over the past decade, the annual budget deficit has risen from $585 billion in 2016 to about $1.8 trillion by the end of 2025 (more than tripling in absolute terms). As a percentage of GDP, it has doubled, from ~3.1% in 2016 to ~6%. The IMF and other international financial institutions believe that for the economy to be stable, the deficit should not exceed 3%.
- Public debt has doubled in a decade – from $19.5 trillion in 2016 to $38.5 trillion today. This represents over 124% of GDP. For comparison, in the decades from 1940 to 2024 the average public debt was 66.38%. What international capitalist organizations consider necessary (for economic stability) is that it does not exceed 60% of GDP.
- The servicing of the American public debt has reached the unprecedented level of 1 trillion dollars per year. This corresponds to approximately 15% of budget expenditure, is on par with spending on health (15%) and exceeds spending on “defense” (13%).
- With an inflation target of 2%, the initial forecast was for 2.1% for 2025. Estimates now are that it will probably fluctuate around 2.7%, while for 2026 an increase to 3% is predicted. As a result, the US Federal Reserve appears reluctant to lower interest rates further (despite Trump’s protests). High interest rates keep public debt servicing costs higher, and keep both the deficit and debt at higher levels.
- In early 2025, the OECD forecast annual growth for the US at 2.4%. It now estimates that the economy grew (in 2025) by only 2%. And it estimates that for 2026 it will grow by 1.7%. Rates that are far from the miracles promised by Trump.
- The US has been running a trade deficit with the rest of the world since the 1970s. The tariffs imposed by Trump on imports from third countries are supposed to reduce (and even reverse) the deficit. Instead, we had an increase in the deficit in the balance of trade with foreign countries from approximately $903 billion in 2024 to $936 billion by November 2025.
No matter what Trump says, the news from the American economy is anything but good.
The above data does not seek to provide a comprehensive assessment of the American economy. They provide a picture of the problems that Trump’s policies cannot in any way solve.
The central emphasis of Trump’s policies was and is on the imposition of tariffs from which he would supposedly collect huge funds, with which he would solve many of the problems of the economy and give it a huge boost.
He declared that by imposing tariffs he would bring back to the United States industries that left the country a long time ago, creating many well-paid jobs. Nothing of the kind has happened. On the contrary, there are job losses. As Bloomberg reports for January just passed:
“US companies announced the largest number of job cuts for any January since the depths of the Great Recession in 2009… Companies last month announced 108,435 job cuts, a 118% increase from a year earlier.”
There is an increase in customs revenue that is estimated to reach $200 billion by 2025, but this will not solve any of the aforementioned problems because Trump plans to use these amounts to make tax breaks (which always benefit the rich). At the same time tariffs push up inflation which hits working class people.
With deficits and bubbles, the economy cannot go far
The growth of the American economy in the present time is based to a large extent on two factors. First, the large budget deficits that were mentioned above and second, the Artificial Intelligence bubble in which hundreds of billions of dollars are being invested.
The problem with deficits (and high) debt is that at some point they cause a sharp landing (recession) of the economy. The problem with bubbles is that at some point they burst.
To reduce debt and deficits smoothly in a capitalist economy, it is necessary (a necessary but not sufficient condition) to have very high GDP growth rates. America does not have high growth rates, so the only way to reduce deficits is through austerity policies. Trump has no intention of doing this (unless this if forced upon him at a later stage) because it is tantamount to political suicide.
The contradictions of the US economy leadin one way or another to recession. What cannot be determined is the timing and depth of that recession. And it is very likely that Trump will pay the price. But that does not mean that Trumpism – a truly dangerous phenomenon – will end.
IV. Trumpism – how dangerous is it, how to deal with it?
Trump’s policies will inevitably cause a major intensification of class struggles in the US. We are not saying anything that is not obvious, a quick look at what is happening in America today confirms this reality.
Class struggle
A few months ago, in October 2025, we had one of the largest mobilizations in American history, with an estimate of 7,000,000 on the streets in 2,700 different protest rallies across the country, with the central slogan “No Kings” (this was the second “No Kings Day”, aimed against Trump’s efforts to acquire excessive powers).
More recently, on January 23, we had the partial general strike, imposed from below, in Minneapolis –called not for trade union but for political demands, against ICE– and the protest rally attended by 100,000 people, in response to the cold-blooded murder of Renee Goode.
America is currently on edge due to the brutality of ICE thugs in their attempt to arrest and deport undocumented immigrants even if they have lived in the US for decades, in the process shooting to kill protesters like Renee Goode and Alex Pretti)
Every city that ICE visits, turns into a “battleground” as residents form communication and mobilization networks as soon as ICE appears, use whistles to mobilize people nearby, hide immigrants, take children to school when their parents are undocumented, etc.
After the strikes in many sectors and the demonstrations in Minneapolis, a discussion has opened among the activists and in the general public about the need for a general strike in the US. This is a development unprecedented in the country’s post-war history.
Apart from the recent events, the entire past decade has been filled with major movements, many of them of historic significance, such as: the major strikes in the auto industry; https://www.internationaliststandpoint.org/usa-historic-auto-workers-strike/ the recent strikes by Starbucks and healthcare workers; the millions who participated in feminist movements against Trump’s sexist/misogynistic views; the Black Lives Matter movement against the killings of black people by police; and if we want to go back further, to the beginning of the past decade, the Occupy movement that had a global impact.
Reflection on the political level
Class struggle is always, in one way or another, reflected on the political level.
In the US, we recently had the election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York, despite the mudslinging war against him. Mamdani describes himself as a socialist and a supporter of Palestinian rights, which is in complete opposition to the policies of the US establishment.
Mamdani is a member of the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America), an organization associated with the left wing of the Democratic Party, which until a few years ago was insignificant but now has 100,000 members.
Both Mamdani and the DSA belong to the (left) political current of reformism, not that of revolutionary socialism – that is, they seek social change through gradual reforms, not through a confrontation with the establishment and the overthrow of big capital’s power. This is unrealistic – big capital’s power cannot be taken away by gradual reforms but only through social revolution, that places the main/strategic companies/sectors of the economy in the hands of the working people, under their management and control. Therefore, there should be no illusions that Mamdani and the DSA will be able to bring the struggle for the great social upturns necessary in the US to a victorious outcome, even if they have the best intentions. What is important to note at this stage, however, is that these developments reflect a very important shift of large sections of society to the left.
Trumpism has limits, but there is no room for complacency
It is not only working-class people that are reacting to Trump. As has already been extensively developed in the previous parts of this article (Uncharted Waters I, II and III) the most important sections of the ruling class in the US and of the capitalists internationally are not at all happy with his trajectory.
The capitalist think-tanks, the “generals” of capital who look after the interests of American (and international) capitalism as a whole, are extremely nervous: they do not want the fate of their system to be in the hands of individuals who behave uncontrollably and unpredictably. They are very worried about the deep cracks that Trump is causing in their previously main alliance bloc (with Europe) as well as for the escalation of class struggle and radicalization that Trump’s policies are bringing.
Trump has acquired the nickname TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). It is worth noting that this was given to him, mockingly, by the New York stockbrokers! They gave it to him because, despite all his big words, when he encounters serious resistance, he retreats. Some typical examples are the following: when he threatened China with 145% tariffs, China responded with tariffs to the level of 125% and restrictions on the exports of critical minerals– and Trump quickly backed down (today, American and Chinese tariffs are at 47.5% and 31.9% respectively); when the Greenland issue reached a crisis level, the obedient and submissive Europeans began to discuss (always behind the scenes) for the first time serious counter measures, and again he backed down (on the issue of military occupation – he still demands ownership of Greenland); he started his new trade war last April by “throwing” huge tariffs in every direction, only to end up with tariffs presently estimated at 10-12% on average (which also explains why the international economy did not dive into a recession).
Of course, there is a discussion about whether this is just tactics on the part of Trump, that he is simply asking for more in order to exert pressure and achieve the best bargain with the various sides and countries. This may be true, but it does not negate the above. If he does not find resistance, Trump will do his thing, if he does, he will beat a partial retreat. If the opponent is in a position of weakness, Trump continues unwavering. Perhaps the way he has treated his European “allies” is the most characteristic: he unilaterally raised tariffs for the EU, publicly mocked them, forced them to increase their military spending to 5% of their GDP, while the Europeans tried to appease him, until he threatened to take Greenland by force. Also, the fact that he may ask for more in order to make more aggressive bargaining does not in any way reduce the dangers arising from his policies, either at home or abroad.
The point is that whatever his aspirations, hopes or fantasies, Trump is not and cannot become the uncontrollable dictator, the “emperor” who will rule the planet without checks and with an iron fist, as he would like.
At the same time, however, the Trump administration is something very different from anything in the past. He completely personifies politics (according to his tastes, whims, likes or dislikes) and is erratic, incoherent and unpredictable.
The Trump phenomenon has characteristic elements of Bonapartism – a regime that places itself above society and classes, although it serves the ruling class, in the name, supposedly, of the nation and seeks unlimited and uncontrolled power. A political phenomenon that reflects the crisis in society, which in turn begins with the crisis of the economy. It is a reflection of the crisis of the ruling class, which is unable to maintain its power and control through the usual traditional ways of “parliamentary democracy”.
This is not at all unrelated to the fact that the Left is as weak and marginalized, internationally, as it is today.
When millions of Americans understand that the famous “American Dream” no longer exists and are looking for a “savior”, and when parts of the ruling class hope that a strong figure can restore their lost glories, then you have phenomena like Trump.
Similar conditions in the past led to the two world wars. If this is not the case today, it is because all the major protagonists possess nuclear weapons and can strike their opponents, causing mutual destruction (even if they are struck first). Few (fools) would doubt that if Trump had lived in a historical era in which there were no nuclear weapons, he would have led us with mathematical precision to a world war.
Everything mentioned above, both in this and in the previous articles in this series, show the limits of Trump – who certainly must be treated as a phenomenon and not simply as an individual. But they do not make him harmless or funny. Quite the opposite. Very dangerous conditions and factors are being created, that will not be eliminated even if he leaves the political scene, that reinforce the rise not only of the Far Right but also of Neo-Fascism in the US in the coming years.
We cannot talk about fascism in the US, but…
There is a discussion about “fascism in the US” that we have dealt with quite extensively in previous articles. We reiterate here that the personal perceptions or the current and future course of Trump and the clique that surrounds him are one thing, and fascism as a regime in society is another.
Trump, his ministers, Elon Musk, key MAGA leaders, etc, may have some fascist characteristics or even become conscious fascists in the future, if some of them are not already. And it may indeed be the case that sections of the MAGA movement, especially those involved in ICE gangs, could evolve in the direction of fascist stormtroopers in the future. But that concerns the future, today we do not have a fascist regime.
A key characteristic of a fascist regime is the abolition of any concept of freedom as well as of the organizations, trade union, political and social, of the working class. We are very far from such a reality. And for such a future to exist, the working class and other mass movements of the US must first be defeated, in huge conflicts, much larger than anything we have seen so far.
It is also not correct to talk about “fascistization” of society, as parts of the Left do. We can talk about the existence of fascist characteristics, elements, methods, for example in the policies implemented by Trump and the forces that support him, we can talk of elements of fascistization of the Trump administration, but this is different than when we refer to society.
Because, what is happening today is that, while some sections are moving to the right and some fascist elements find the opportunity to emerge and act (wearing, for example, police uniforms and receiving immunity from the state) some other parts are getting radicalized, are rebelling, searching for left ideas, looking for ways to fight against the system. Along with the right turn and radicalization, there is also a left turn and radicalization. It is important to clarify these so that the Left knows where it stands and how to map its road ahead.
Conclusions and tasks for the Left
For the mass movements and the Left, the messages are clear and so should be the tasks.
Trump, more than any other individual on the planet, shows where capitalism is leading humanity: wars, imperialist interventions, kidnappings of heads of other states (see Venezuela), assassinations of political opponents (by Israel with US support), brutal repression, murders of ordinary citizens by rabid thugs dressed in police uniforms, and so on.
Trump may be defeated in the next elections and his movement may receive a serious blow but it will not die out. Because American society is going through an epoch of crisis Trumpism as a phenomenon and as a trend will continue to exist – in fact, it’s possible that it may be led by people even more dangerous than Trump (as is possibly the case with current Vice President J.D. Vance).
This “current” will look for the opportunity to strike back if it faces a setback in the next elections (midterm and national). This opportunity will be provided to Trumpism on the one hand by the general crisis of the capitalist system and on the other by Democratic Party governments in the US, which only manage with their criminal anti-people policies to strengthen the various shades of Trumpism.
The answer lies on the left – only the Left can provide a way forward. But this general truth is not sufficient in itself. The key issue is what kind of Left is required, what kind of Left can provide an alternative to the barbarity to which the system is plunging humanity.
There is no doubt that the Left in the US will strengthen its forces in the coming period. The reaction to Trumpism will push people to search for left-wing ideas and for organization. The example of the DSA and of the election of Mamdami are typical. In total, the DSA has elected several hundred of its members to various positions, from Congress to local government. We have every reason to rejoice in the successes of the Left internationally but at the same time, we should not lose sight of the limits of this “new Left”, which has appeared in one country after another in recent decades and has, unfortunately, failed everywhere. Probably the most characteristic example is that of SYRIZA in Greece – it not only failed to reverse the policies of the IMF and EU that slashed the Greek GDP by 27% and living standards accordingly in the period 2010-15, but it continued the application of the same policies. Inevitably, it finally collapsed, leaving the Right and the Far Right in Greece to thrive. There have been many similar examples both in Europe and in Central and Latin America. There is no example of a reformist formation in history that has been able to solve the impasse and crisis of the capitalist system through the application of gradual, parliamentary reforms.
Marxists are small but not an insignificant force in the US. They exist in independent formations, within the social movements, within the DSA. They play a role in movements such as the one against ICE (which is a grassroots movement without an organized force behind it) as well as in strike mobilizations and solidarity networks. A very conscious approach is required, that no matter how important the new rise of the American Left and the movements is during this period, there should be no illusions in reformism.
Through all these processes, revolutionary Marxists need to strive to strengthen their forces, with the aim of building mass revolutionary organizations. There lies the answer to the crisis of capitalism which in turn gives birth to the Far Right, the neo-fascist currents, authoritarianism, the new would-be kings and wannabe emperors.
As much as the apologists of the system flatter themselves, the crisis and the rot that are engulfing the planet constitute, once again, a real, great, historical confirmation of Marxism. The need to build a mass revolutionary, Marxist Left is the only possible way forward. Because, as the great revolutionary Rosa Luxemburg said over a century ago, humanity has two choices: socialism or barbarism.
