The following article was written about 10 days ago, for the website of “Xekinima”, Greek section of ISp but its translation was delayed due to other pressures. In the meantime, we’ve seen the new summersaults by Trump, who has been speaking about the Iranians begging for a compromise and an end to the war, despite the repeated falsification of these claims by the Iranian regime. Trump has repeatedly threatened Iran with new massive waves of attacks, if they do not open the Strait of Hormuz, and then repeatedly postponed his threats. At the same time the US is sending more troops to the region and is possibly preparing for a small-scale attack aiming at capturing some strategic points on or off the coasts of Iran, with the main aim of opening the strait of Hormuz. These recent developments are not taken into consideration, but they do not change the substance of what was happening one or two weeks ago. The article, below, is the original version uploaded on Xekinima’s website on March 20.
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The world is watching in amazement the daily acrobatics of the racist, misogynist, bully, wannabe world emperor who rules the USA, in the war he started against Iran. Trump’s case has no precedent in the period since World War II in any developed industrial country.
He killed the Iranian leadership, whilst a negotiation process was underway and there was strong evidence that a compromise on the part of Iran and an agreement were on the cards, based on the statements made by the Omani Foreign Minister and British diplomatic sources.
It appears that the decision to assassinate the Iranian leadership had been taken together with Netanyahu last year and the negotiations were nothing more than a smokescreen.
The stated objectives of the attack on Iran change every other day. Initially, Trump stated that the objective was regime change, but he forgot about it after a few days, since, as he admitted, the US and Israeli bombs eliminated both the 1st and 2nd line of Iranian officials, so they did not know who to turn to (unlike what happened in Venezuela). The objective then shifted to destroying Iran’s nuclear arsenal. But this, according to Trump himself, had already been destroyed in the 12-day war last June. Then the objective became to destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones. But Iran continues to fire at US bases and US allied forces throughout the region, with significant success. After at one point he joyfully declared that the war had been won, leaving the impression that it might end soon, he then, together with Israel, intensified the bombings, even talking about thousands of targets that still need to be hit. When asked when he sees the end of the war, he replied… “when he feels it in his bones”!!
In one recent statement he said that if he hadn’t hit Iran, we would have seen World War III! Despite all of this he is capable of claiming the Nobel Peace Prize again next year!
And after repeatedly boasting about completely smashing Iran’s forces, on March 15 (in an interview with the Financial Times) he turned to his “allies” in NATO, asking them… to send naval forces to free up navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has closed by hitting more than 20 (possibly 23-24) oil tankers. This made CNN go as far as to mock him by writing “after winning the war, what does he want with foreign ships?” The editor-in-chief of the Financial Times who spoke with Trump was clear: Trump is at an impasse, which is why he is asking for help.
Trump, in fact, did not only ask NATO for help for the Strait of Hormuz, but… also China! He even threatened that if China does not send forces to open the straits, then he will not go to China for the visit that has been arranged for the end of March! Wow! With such a threat, it is certain that China will fall at his feet and beg him to have mercy on them!
Oil
About 20-25% of the world’s oil supplies, 20% of LNG (liquefied natural gas), 30% of the world’s fertilizer trade and 13% of chemical products pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran can cut off shipping by hitting oil tankers with missiles (from land) or torpedoes (from sea) but also with small high-speed boats, either manned or unmanned. These are also the most difficult to intercept as they are very fast and stored in covered coastal bases – as are the missile and drone launch systems on land.
And the question of every analyst, not only on the left but also of the establishment (who simply possess elementary logic) is: didn’t Trump know that Iran would close the straits? Shouldn’t he have realised that when Iran closed the straits, oil prices would rise, threatening not only inflation, which is certain as oil is at the basis of the entire production process but, depending on the duration, even with a recession in the global economy (bringing to memory the oil crisis of the 1970s)?
Oil prices have already almost doubled compared to before the war. As this article is being written (19.3.2026) its price is at 118 US dollars per barrel when in January the average was 63 dollars (the prices refer to Brent which is considered the main indicator). This is causing intense concern among the representatives of the capitalist system all over the world.
However, when journalists asked Trump if he was worried about the rise in oil prices, his answer was: no, because America benefits from the rise in energy prices (it is the largest producer of hydrocarbons on the planet). He is obviously “playing dumb” or does not understand what is happening around him – but certainly when he said that America is winning, he was not referring to American workers but to his billionaire friends.
Who are they calling on to rise up?
Accurate predictions about what may happen next are not possible. Two things however seem extremely unlikely. First, to have an overthrow of the regime in Iran; and second, to have a successful major invasion with ground forces as happened in the cases of Afghanistan and Iraq (2001 and 2003 respectively).
During the bombings that began on February 28, the US and Israel addressed the people of Iran en masse (through social media) calling on them to overthrow the regime and even to get in touch directly with the US and Israeli secret services, the CIA and the Mossad. They did exactly the same thing during the 12-day bombing of Iran in June 2025.
One wonders, where do they base this stupid optimism, that when they bomb a country, its people can rise up in their favor? Do they have any historical example to present to us? Wars, yes, can lead to uprisings, but after they are nearing their end or are over, and the working class and poor people feel the death, destruction and misery that has been caused by their government’s policies. However, when the invaders are dropping bombs, for the people to revolt in support of the invaders is nonsensical.
Trump’s belief was that after the assassination of the Iranian leadership, the regime would collapse. When this did not happen, he confided in his circle, according to American newspapers, that he could not explain it. This led Bloomberg to write that Trump’s problem is that he “does not understand his enemy and that gives Iran an edge.”
In practice, therefore, the only “meaning” that the call for an uprising has is to address the national minorities: Kurds, Baluchis, Azeris, etc., who, however, all together, constitute a minority in Iran in relation to the Persian population, which is the majority. We cannot know if this is the goal of the calls by the CIA and Mossad, but if it is, the consequences would be clear: we are talking about seeking to provoke an internal war based on ethnic differences, which is extremely doubtful if it will cause the overthrow of the regime, since the confrontation will have nationalist and not class characteristics. And of course, if something like this happens, then we will be talking about a real bloodbath resulting either in the genocide of the minorities or the dissolution of the country. In place of the current regime, the most likely outcome would be an even harsher, more theocratic and barbaric dictatorial regime.
The main ethnic group that could theoretically rise up is the Kurds (not the Azeris who are integrated into the regime, nor the Baluchis who are less in a position to act than the Kurds). However, the Kurds of Iran, who number around 10 million, appear hesitant to take on such a role. Among other reasons because the experience in neighboring Iraq and Syria is that the West, after using them for their own war purposes, subsequently refused to keep their promises to satisfy their national claims.
So far, the Kurds have maintained a cautious stance. This could change, especially if the US sends troops to support them. But then, as mentioned above, we will be talking about bloodshed that will surpass anything we have seen in the region in recent decades – without solving either the “regime problem” or the problem of oil flows.
Ground troops?
As for the deployment of ground troops, there is no way to know whether Trump and the clique around him have drawn any conclusions from the following:
- The US withdrawal from Afghanistan –after an initial victory in 2001, and the overthrow of the Taliban, the US military presence in the country for over 20 years ended with the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.
- What followed their victory in the Iraq War against Saddam Hussein (2003) where they again “triumphed”, only to see Iraq subsequently fall under Iranian influence and as a state be fragmented between the Kurdish regions (northern Iraq), the Shiites (south and center) and the Sunnis (western Iraq).
- Their interventions in Libya and Syria, after the “Arab Spring” of 2011, which led to chaos and the fragmentation of these countries into factions and warlords, through bloodbaths, with the Western powers finally packing up and leaving behind only symbolic numbers of troops.
- And finally, the emergence of the Islamic State (ISIS).
The Islamic State, officially founded in 2014, were extremist Islamists, who publicly slaughtered “non-believers” and opponents in front of the cameras. They went so far as to destroy every trace of centuries-old monuments, because they had no connection with Islam. They made rapid advances after the civil wars in Iraq, Syria and Libya, occupying a large part of the territories of Iraq and Syria to build their Caliphate. They were eventually defeated, with their first major setback being recorded in the battle of Kobane, in the Kurdish areas of northwestern Syria (Rojava). ISIS still exists but is limited to much smaller areas. The latest attack by the Syrian regime (with US support) against the Kurds of Rojava, with the aim of limiting their autonomy, resulted in the release of approximately 25,000 ISIS members who were being held in concentration camps in Rojava.
Any US military intervention in Iran with massive ground forces, of the kind that took place in the above countries, should logically be ruled out, unless Trump and Netanyahu have lost all touch with reality and common sense. It would be a trap from which they would not know how to escape, in a country with a vast area and many high and steep mountains. They have no way of imposing a regime that serves them and there is no way to deal with the guerrilla attacks of the “revolutionary guards” (and other armed forces in Iran estimated to nearly 1.5 million) in the event of an occupation of parts of the country (occupying the whole is ruled out, of course). The “revolutionary guards” number around 200,000 and from what appears from the US and Israeli announcements, they have only managed to kill around 1,200 of them after more than two weeks of bombing.
The sending of small forces, however, either to occupy specific points (the Straits of Hormuz or the island of Kharg) or as an auxiliary force in the event of, for example, a Kurdish offensive, is not ruled out. But such moves cannot bring about a fundamental change in the situation.
It is very possible that the US has been trapped in a war in which it had no plan for either entering or exiting. This is something that will become clearer in the coming weeks.
Israel has a plan – unlike the US
However, the same is not true for Israel. The Netanyahu government is expanding its territory, based on this war, which began in October 2023: in Gaza, having occupied 53%; in the West Bank, expanding the settlements; in Lebanon with the new offensive against Hezbollah; in Syria, consolidating the conquest of the Golan Heights and expanding the territories it holds, approaching the suburbs of the capital Damascus, at the same time as building strong alliances with the Druze in southwestern Syria and with the Kurds in eastern Syria. Meanwhile, the Assad regime in Syria has collapsed, dealing a huge blow to the so-called “axis of resistance” between Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah. And finally, with the attacks against Iran, which began on February 28, it is attempting to weaken –since it has not managed to overthrow the regime– to the greatest extent possible its main rival in the region.
Whatever the outcome, everything indicates that Israel will emerge victorious, in terms of military and geographical expansion, from this adventure into which the planet is being led.
The Left
Trump, on the other hand, may emerge defeated or weakened. If he is forced to abandon the war without net gains, this will be a defeat – no matter what he says. The majority of Americans (up to 56%) are against attacking Iran. Three out of four are against escalating by sending ground forces. As time passes, with no end in sight and with inflation rising, his popularity within the US will decline further.
One of the possible scenarios, within the next 1 to 2 years, is for Trump to find himself faced with a recession in the US economy, a result of both the contradictions of US capitalism (high deficits and debt, inability to check the rise of China, etc.) and the consequences of the war. This development can have an impact on checking the arrogance of Trump and can create the conditions for his fall.
The Left across the planet has a duty to do everything in its power to fight against Imperialism and defend the Iranian people. The Left must develop mass propaganda against the US and Israeli imperialism’s attack on Iran and to contribute to the development of mass anti-war mobilizations. In NATO countries (such as Greece) we must start with the premise that “the main enemy is within the country” – especially given the Greek government’ s warm relationship with Israel and the US.
Within the US, the Left can act as a catalyst for the growth of the anti-war movement and connect it with the inspiring movement against ICE deportations.
But the Left also has another duty: to criticize the theocratic-dictatorial regime of Iran.
Opposition, first and foremost, to the aggression of American imperialism, must not be translated into support for the theocratic regime, in any way. Nor should silence be maintained about its character. It does not strengthen the anti-imperialist struggle by concealing the reactionary character of the regime, it does not strengthen the effort to build mass anti-war movements, quite the opposite, it undermines them.
Because, in order to build mass movements, you must be able to approach the mass popular layers that come to conclusions through their experiences. For millions of people, yes, the US and Israel bomb and kill, but the mullahs also murder anyone who disagrees with them, kill women because they don’t wear their headscarves properly, and confront demonstrations with machine guns. This kind of approach is the expected normal reaction and thinking of the mass of workers and young people.
By not taking a critical position towards the regime the Left appears (even unintentionally) to be covering up these crimes. And this reduces its reach and ability to address wider audiences, that is, beyond its own forces.
What the whole world knows and discusses, the Left has a responsibility not to hide but to boldly explain and make its own proposal. Its own proposal is, of course, for the imperialists to leave the region, but at the same time for the theocratic regime to fall through the struggle of the Iranian people.
The issue becomes even more crucial when we are talking about the Iranian people themselves.
The self-sacrifice and heroism of the Iranian people is inspiring. Every few years we have uprisings of enormous proportions. Last December (2025) and January (2026) we had the most recent uprising, with deaths that may number, apparently, tens of thousands – the real number, of course, we will never know. Earlier, in the fall of 2022, we had the amazing “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement on the occasion of the murder of Masha Amini, which lasted months, with hundreds of deaths from the bullets of the “security” forces. In 2021 we had the “thirst uprising”, in 2019 we had “Bloody November”, in December 2017 and January 2018 we had uprisings in the Iranian provinces, and so on…
To the Iranian masses, these heroic people, the Left internationally has a responsibility not to make any concessions and not to offer any cover-up to the regime. Because, then, the Left will not only have “lost” these Iranian masses, but also leave them no other choice but to turn to the Western butchers as their saviors.
