September 2025 was an important month for the Chinese regime and its world outreach. On September 1st, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting in Tianjin, China, concluded its workings, and on September 3rd, Beijing hosted a huge military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second Sino-Japanese War and the Second World War.
These two events attracted a lot of international attention, mainly focused on the possible geopolitical alliances that China is forging. The presence of India’s PM N. Modi along with V. Putin in the SCO summit, and the appearance of Xi with Kim Jong Un and V. Putin at his side in the military parade, were designed as a show of Chinese strength.
Dragon and Elephant dance
India and China have for long been at odds with each other, as they are competing for domination in the same geographic area, but the war in Ukraine, and then Trump’s election, have forced them to work together. Trump’s tariffs seem to have contributed to that.
Xi, in his speech at the SCO summit, noted that
“The ‘dragon-elephant dancing together’ should be the correct choice for both China and India.” [Dragon is the symbol of China and Elephant the symbol of India]
Obviously, this does not mean that the two superpowers, India and China, will forget their differences and drop their fierce competition but it clearly shows how Trump’s policies are backfiring against the interests of a decaying US capitalism. The reason is that we no longer live in the era of the so-called “Pax Americana”, but in a multipolar world in which the US faces severe competition.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a (mainly) security organisation, established in 2001, which currently consists of 10 (mostly) Eurasian countries: China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Belarus. At the recent Tianjin meeting, another 14 countries were present with their heads of state: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Egypt, Maldives, Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, Indonesia, Mongolia, Nepal, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Malaysia. A lot of these countries (and some others) have the status of SCO partner or observer.
The countries present in the recent SCO meeting represent more than 50% of the world’s population and around 40% of the world’s GDP in PPP terms.*
In the Declaration of the SCO summit we read
“Member States reaffirm their commitment to the formation of a more representative, democratic, just and multipolar world…”
“…they reaffirmed the relevance of initiatives to promote cooperation in building a new type of international relations in the spirit of mutual respect, justice, equality and mutually beneficial cooperation…”
These are the main talking points of the declaration, which focuses on the idea that the “world architecture” needs “reform”. And for them, reform means to play a bigger role in imperialist decision-making and “fair competition”. The text is full of hypocritic calls to “prevent religious intolerance and xenophobia, aggressive nationalism, and ethnic and racial discrimination” and to “ensure the rights of women”. These calls, coming from the repressive regimes of Iran, Russia, China, India, show that their use is purely propagandistic.
The Declaration doubles down in hypocrisy when it mentions Gaza, where it “reiterates their deep concern…” about the “… catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip.” At the same time, these regimes continue to do significant trade with Israel: China/HK-Israel trade stands at almost $20bn while India’s and Russia’s at approximately $4bn each. If these regimes wanted to, they could really strike a blow at Israel using economic measures.
India: the apple of discord
India has been for some time the apple of discord between the Western imperialist bloc and China’s rising alliance. As Reuters puts it
“Many Western leaders see India as a bulwark against China. Their fear of the People’s Republic outweighs their concerns about Narendra Modi’s authoritarian tendencies.”
India has become a de facto special invitee at the G7 meetings and has a special strategic relation with the US through the Quad (Australia, Japan, India, US).
In the February 2025 meeting of Trump and Modi at the White House, Trump said
“There is truly a special bond between the United States and India and the world’s oldest democracy and the world’s largest democracy…”
while Modi replied
“If I were to say this, borrowing an expression from America, our vision for a developed India is to “Make India Great Again,” or “MIGA.” When America and India work together […] when it’s MAGA plus MIGA, it becomes mega—a mega partnership for prosperity”.
But at the same time as flirting with Western imperialists, India is also part of BRICS and the SCO along with Russia and China. It keeps its options open and has its own capitalist ambitions.
The Trump-Modi meeting seemed to point to a new impetus, but Trump struck a blow to it by slapping a 50% tariff on Indian imports, on the basis that India is “helping Russia” in its war in Ukraine, because it buys Russian oil. These tariffs could shave off 0.5-0.6% from India’s GDP in a year, according to India’s chief economic adviser.
Trump, adding insult to injury wrote in Truth Social
“I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.”
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, India accounted for less than 1% of Russia’s oil exports but this had risen dramatically to 37% by 2024. India is now Russia’s second biggest buyer, after China.
While Trump’s bullying tactics have been successful with traditional allies (see trade deals with UK, EU, Japan and a few others), who have bent the knee to Trump in order to maintain good relations, they don’t have the same results with other countries.
The picture of Modi and Putin walking into the SCO summit hand in hand, was a slap in the face of Trump. It was a clear message by the Indian PM that he is not willing to succumb (at least without a fight) to Trump’s blackmail. Modi is well aware that, despite Trump’s threats, the EU, South Korea and other US allies are still buying Russian gas and oil without facing US tariffs for that.
Military parade… for peace
Two days after the SCO summit, China held a huge military parade. Subtly, this was a response to Trump’s June 2025 parade for the US army 250th anniversary (and his birthday). The People’s Liberation Army (China’s military) presented a spectacle, the message of which was clear: ‘China can militarily play a decisive role in the world’. The presence of Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un at Xi’s side was also noticeable. Russia and N. Korea are both nuclear powers and have huge armies – according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, China, Russia and North Korea are the 3 of the 5 top armies regarding active military personnel (the other 2 being US and India).
Trump showed his unease with what was happening with a post on Truth Social, saying to Xi:
“Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un as you conspire against the United States of America.”
The alliances forged by China are made to challenge Western imperialism’s hegemony on the planet. But they are not “anti-imperialist” alliances. On the contrary, they claim an imperialist role for themselves, based on their economic ascent.
Trump is trying to rebuild US domination, applying a different tactic to Biden: he thinks he can bully his way out of US imperialisms’ impasse. His policies are backfiring however -the idea that he can achieve a “reverse Kissinger”**, creating rifts between Russia and China, holds no water. Tariffs, which were meant to lure back unstable allies, such as India, are instead pushing them in China’s direction.
The truth is, as the “new” imperialist powers become more eager to play their role and the “old” imperialist powers feel an existential threat, both will become more dangerous, with a resulting rise in wars, nationalism, militarisation and a new arms race. In these times, the need for an independent working class, socialist alternative becomes a burning necessity.
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*Purchasing Power Parity is the exchange rate at which the currency of one nation must be converted into the currency of another so that the same products and services can be purchased in each country. It is considered a more accurate way to measure the economic strength of a country.
**Kissinger is often credited with masterminding the US rapprochement with China in the 70’s to isolate the USSR. The term “reverse Kissinger” was coined as the approach that Trump adopted-to convince Putin and make him “change sides” or at least “neutralise” him in the US-China conflict
