Recent by elections in England have produced surprising results which seem to contradict national opinion polling. Two recent local authority by elections in the last two weeks have produced results that have to some extent confounded predictions. In the Worth Valley by election in Bradford, the Conservative Party held onto the seat with a reduction in the vote from 2327 to 1815 -not as big a reduction as expected. Labour’s vote was reduced by two thirds from 1309 to 425. The Green Party had hoped to pick up support had their vote actually cut from 328 to 245. The main reason for the Conservative vote holding up so well has been explained by them standing a well-known, popular local figure. Support for Reform UK was 917, making them the second largest party and it seems likely that they took many votes from disaffected Labour voters as well as some Conservative voters.
In the Stoneygate ward in Leicester on the other hand the vote for the Greens doubled from 534 to 1195 while the vote for Labour halved to 1089. Reform UK stood a candidate but they received only 106 votes. In summary a sharp swing to the Greens was seen as voters rejected Labour. Support for Reform is inconsistent.
In the Gorton and Denton Parliamentary by election many predict that that Labour would almost certainly lose. Support for the Green Party has increased significantly from 17% to 32% since January and support for Labour has only slipped from 27% to 26%. However, this is half the level of support for Labour at the last General Election which was 51%. Support for Reform UK has fallen slightly from 30% to 29%. The result therefore seems to hang in the balance and could be influenced the most by active campaigning on the ground, an area where the Greens seem to have the edge.
In general, it seems that local conditions will influence local results but also that where the Green Party can put up a solid campaign, they can grow support from left voters in general. In Gorton and Denton where Your Party and other left parties are not running candidates but recommending critical support for the Greens on this specific occasion there is real momentum behind them. The principal motivation for the critical support seems to be to keep Reform UK out, rather than attacking Labour.
In terms of council seats won and lost the situation for Labour is grave with them losing 52 seats since 2024. The Conservatives have lost 26 seats and Reform Uk have picked up 65 seats. This shows new and strong support for Reform UK, something the Left has to challenge.
In the next few days, a leadership group for Your Party will be formed. Let’s hope this signals a quick strategy for Your Party to start to build its branches. The membership data now needs to be shared with local Your Party activists so that they can decide local approaches to the up-coming council elections in May. Candidates have to be registered by the end of March and this timescale looks too difficult to action except possibly in a limited number of cases. Priority should be given to building strong branches, knocking on doors and listening to local people as well as reaching out to the many members yet to be contacted; to promoting Your Party’s socialist politics boldly and determinedly and not be side-tracked by reformists who don’t believe capitalism can be radically challenged.
